2025 ushers in an impressive year for Republicans as Donald Trump secured enough electoral college votes to become the 47th president of the United States. The right also flipped four senate seats with a 53-47 majority and will maintain control of the house as well. This is the first time since 2016 that Republicans have secured unified control over Congress and the White House once President Elect Trump is sworn into office on January 20, 2025.
After returning to session in Washington in November, the house and senate elected their respective leaderships teams which include Mike Johnson (R-LA) as Speaker of the House, Steve Scalise (R-LA) as House Majority Leader, Tom Emmer (R-MN) as Majority Whip, Lisa McClain (R-MI) as House Republican Conference Chair, John Thune (R-SD) as Senate Majority Leader, John Barrasso (R-WY) as Senate Majority Whip, Tom Cotton (R-AR) as Conference Chair, and Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) as Policy Chair. In the Senate, the four incoming Republicans who won seats previously held by Democrats are Jim Justice of West Virginia, the state’s outgoing governor; David McCormick of Pennsylvania, a hedge fund executive; Bernie Moreno of Ohio, a businessman; and Tim Sheehy of Montana, a former Navy SEAL and businessman. Two other Republicans are new to the chamber: former Representative Jim Banks of Indiana and John Curtis of Utah. The 119th Congress was sworn in on January 3, 2025 following the adjournment of the 118th Congress.
An observation of the opening hours of the 119th congress reveals an interesting glimpse into both the House of Representatives and the Senate, pointing towards the direction that both bodies of Congress leaders are headed these next two years. Republicans now control both the House and the Senate by a slim majority and their control will determine the legislation passed during this congressional session. Any legislation that does not have Democratic support will easily be threatened by even simply a handful of Republicans in the House, which makes passage of more bipartisan legislation difficult. For example, in the Senate, Majority Leader Thune (R-SD) promised to retain the filibuster, meaning that any legislation pursued under regular order will require Democratic votes to proceed.
In the 2024 elections for the 435-seat House of Representatives, Republicans won 220 seats, while Democrats won 215. Since the margin for leadership of the House will be extremely close, it is important to note that it will be a difficult few months for republicans while they try to fill the vacancies left by those tapped to join the Trump administration. The current republican edge is small by historical standards, as they are left with a margin of 219-215 until seats are filled by special election. This means that in February and March which is traditionally a time of heavy lifting for legislation processes, especially with the incoming new president, a united Democratic conference can defeat any piece of legislation if just one Republican defects. In the past, the House has seen even slimmer divides, including in 1917-18 and 1931-32. But the incoming Republican edge is small by historical standards, and is even smaller than during the previous two Congresses. For most of 2021-22, Democrats held a 222-213 edge, and for much of 2023-2024, Republicans held a 221-214 majority.
For example, one of the usual important policy shifts to focus on as the 119th congress is firmly under way will be healthcare and the trump administration’s appointment of different individuals to lead their respective federal agencies. There are several members of current healthcare committees in the Senate who are meeting with different individuals nominated to lead future major federal health agencies, and Additional nominees to lead sub-agencies will be announced in the coming weeks as attention turns to President-Elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025.
Because of the narrow house win for Republicans, this means that there will be little room for error even though Trump’s legislative priorities will of course carry significant weight for the party. Despite these potential incoming issues, House Republicans may have some support and leverage with Democrats this congress as those representing Trump-won districts may break with their party discipline and join Republicans occasionally on votes to preserve their pro-Trump constituents’ credibility and favor.
Ultimately, it is not certain that the House and Senate will agree on the fine print of different legislation, even though the Republican party holds both chambers. Trump undeniably holds Republican control of Congress, but it will still be difficult to navigate the narrow margins which have the potential to present challenges for different parts of his agenda that require full congressional approval. Yet, even with the incoming difficulty, Trump and the new Republican majority are confident that they will be able to get things done efficiently and reconcile several bills which remain as points of contention.
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